000
AXNT20 KNHC 161113
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N3W 4N16W 2N32W 1N40W ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-27W AND FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ALONG 25N93W TO THE 
W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W RETURNING N AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
MOUNTAINS. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT 
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER 
THE NW GULF COAST STATES AND E MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO 
THE DESERT SW. THE GULF REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE N 
BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E 
PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS 
FUELING THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE MODERATED OVER THE GULF AS THE 
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE FAR E GULF FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
FROM OVER CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE 
FROM THE W ATLC STILL EXTENDS TO THE E COAST OF THE US AND IS 
BEGINNING TO RETREAT EASTWARD WITH THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE 
FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE 
W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N. A SURGE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY 
AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWERS. 
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE 
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS 
OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS 
NEAR 26N77W AND COVERS THE ATLC W OF 60W. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
FAR W ATLC AS RESULT OF THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGE. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 
21N55W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING SW OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC 
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
10N52W TO 25N50W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 43W-56W. E/W SURFACE RIDGE 
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH A 1030 MB HIGH ANCHORED IN 
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N54W AND A SECOND 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE 
E ATLC NEAR 32N38W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. 
  
$$
WALLACE