000
AXNT20 KNHC 160012
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W EQ50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 37W-51W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING 
FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N98W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  A MESS OF WINTRY 
PRECIPITATION IS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS WHERE 
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING DUE TO A SHALLOW 
LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.  A GALE WARNING IS ISSUED 
FOR THE GULF S OF 25N BEHIND THE FRONT.  AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SELY RETURN FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED. 
ALOFT...A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS SEEN SPREADING 
THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF...AROUND THE 
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT DRY MID TO UPPER 
AIR IS SE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO VERACRUZ 
MEXICO.  EXPECT THE THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA FLORIDA 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 27N83W 24N93W 18N94W BY TUESDAY 
EVENING WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA... 
JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  A GALE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE 
WATERS ALONG N COLOMBIA. ALOFT...EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO 
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. THE DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED FURTHER 
S OVER COSTA RICA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1030 MB SFC HIGH E OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO 
FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. ASSOCIATED 5 
TO 10 FT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD ELY SWELL ARE ALSO PROPAGATING 
THROUGH THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS.  A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED 
IN THE ELY FLOW OVER S FLORIDA PRODUCING LOW TO MID CLOUDINESS 
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS.  A MORE PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N49W 23N52W 19N53W.  ASSOCIATED SHOWERS 
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 37W-54W.  
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W.  E OF 35W A 
DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS EVIDENT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS FURTHER E NEAR 22N55W.  WLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC E OF 45W.  
  
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FORMOSA