000
AXNT20 KNHC 151805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W 2N40W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-49W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE NW GULF THIS 
AFTERNOON. SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS 
CREATING A MESS OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS...SEE 
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. MARINE 
ISSUES ALSO EXIST...WITH A GALE WARNING BEHIND THE FRONT 
STARTING FOR THE SW GULF S OF 25N THIS EVENING AND LASTING 
THROUGH WED. SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS. LIGHT TO MODERATE 
STRATIFORM RAIN ALSO ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WRN 
GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE RETURN FLOW IS BEING 
OBSERVED. ALOFT...A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE IS 
SEEN SPREADING THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW 
GULF...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT 
DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS SE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND 
TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO 
SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE DRY AIR IS 
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE ERN PORTION. AT THE SFC...A GALE 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN 
COAST. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. 
THE TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS 
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW 
MOISTURE/SHOWERS NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...LIKELY 
ATTRIBUTED TO SPEED CONVERGENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL 
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB THROUGH TUE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1032 MB SFC HIGH JUST E OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE 
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. 
ASSOCIATED 5 TO 10 FT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD ELY SWELL ALSO 
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS SUBSIDES SLOWLY 
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING 
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN 
THE ELY FLOW THROUGH THE WRN BAHAMAS...WHICH IS SPREADING LOW TO 
MID CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS INTO SE FLORIDA. A MORE 
PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 27N45W 23N50W 17N52W. THIS IS A 
REFLECTION OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...WITH THE UPPER AXIS FROM 30N47W TO HISPANIOLA. 
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N 
BETWEEN 42W-54W. E ATLC DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...WHICH 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT HIGH CLOUDS EWD BETWEEN NE SOUTH AMERICA AND 
AFRICA. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO NE SFC WINDS ALSO OVER THE E ATLC 
SE OF 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W. THE SFC TROUGH ALONG 32N24W 
26N22W...ABOUT 350 NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING W WITH THE 
TRADES IN THE ATLC...THOUGH THESE DIMINISH GREATLY E OF 
35W...WHERE A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS EVIDENT.
  
$$
WILLIS