000
AXNT20 KNHC 140505
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N20W 2N34W ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 32W-34W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE E US ANCHORED BY AN 
UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E 
PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE E US WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF LATER TODAY MOVING TOWARD THE E COAST OF 
TEXAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE 
SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 93W WITH MODERATE/STRONG EAST 
TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE RETURN FLOW HAS WEAKENED 
WITH ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND 
THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 83W.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL 
ATLC DIPS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 
SSW TO 13N69W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS 
OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE 
LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION 
AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA 
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO 
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W SW TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO 
THE E CARIBBEAN. REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N48W 
ALONG 26N56W TO 25N65W BUT IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LENSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC 
FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 56W-63W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN 
CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH A 1032 MB HIGH ANCHORED OVER BERMUDA. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED 
DEEP IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING IN THE E 
ATLC ALONG 26N EXTENDING FROM 26N-34N. AFRICAN DUST OBSERVED ON 
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
35W AND CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER TROUGH 
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  
  
$$
WALLACE