000 AXNT20 KNHC 140007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... PRIME MERIDIAN AT 4N...7N10W 5N20W 3N30W 2N42W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W...TO 2S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM 4N TO 19N EAST OF 27W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH- TO-GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE PATTERN FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS BASICALLY THE SAME...EXCEPT SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE IS RIGHT ON TOP OF FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 98W INTO TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 60W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 75W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES FROM A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N62W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 13N70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS EAST OF 69W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 67W...AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W IS FOR NORTHEASTERN WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WATERS ELSEWHERE WEST OF 65W IS FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS OVER FROM FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 60W NORTH OF 20N. THIS FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N56W TO 20N62W...AND EVENTUALLY TO 13N70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A JET STREAM/WIND MAXIMA FROM 500 MB TO 100 MB IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W 26N50W BEYOND 32N40W. THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS REACH 60 KT FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W ACCORDING TO THE 13/1800 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N40W TO 29N50W TO 26N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND DISSIPATING WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N56W 31N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N23W 29N25W 34N26W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 27N FROM 22N BEYOND 32N. $$ MT