000 AXNT20 KNHC 130013 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... PRIME MERIDIAN AT 4N...4N20W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING ALONG THE WESTERN U.S.A. COAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 25N135W. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH ALLOWS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.-TO-GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE TO AMPLIFY. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM ALABAMA TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS UNDER THE RIDGE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE 18Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. A RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1036 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N60W TO A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N83W ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER...TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...TO 28N91W...TO 25N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 77W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES FROM A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 19N76W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REACHING 19N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FEET ARE OCCURRING AND ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WIND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS CONTINUES TO PUSH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SIMILAR TRADES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH TRINIDAD...NE VENEZUELA...AND THE ABC ISLANDS. THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE THIS AREA FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGEST THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N61W TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A JET STREAM/WIND MAXIMA FROM 500 MB TO 100 MB IS WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N77W 21N67W 24N60W 28N50W BEYOND 34N40W. THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS REACH 60 KT FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W ACCORDING TO THE 12/1800 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 28N50W 23N60W 21N70W TO 19N76W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N25W TO 23N30W TO 21N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N26W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N26W TO 24N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 34N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...AND FROM 27N ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 34N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N23W 25N18W 28N16W BEYOND 32N16W. $$ MT