000 AXNT20 KNHC 121727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 4N AND CONTINUES W THROUGH 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W BEFORE CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 27W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1038 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS GENERATING MODERATE E TO SE WIND WAVES/SWELL ACROSS THE GULF. A BIT HIGHER WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE GULF REMAINS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF IN ADDITION TO THE SE US. THIS IS ADVECTING A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO N MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND CLIPS THE NRN GULF WATERS...PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF DURING MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SIMILAR TRADES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN MOVING THROUGH TRINIDAD...NE VENEZUELA...AND THE ABC ISLANDS. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE THIS AREA FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGEST THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS NOTED W OF 80W. THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL IN THE E CARIB. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE CARIBBEAN ABOVE 500 MB. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 37N65W. THE HIGH CONTINUES SLIDING E FROM THE EAST COAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N45W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 22N67W...AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE COAST OF ERN CUBA. SHOWERS LIKELY WITHIN 60NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS BEING INFLUENCED...IN ADDITION TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BY THE DYNAMICS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH ARE GENERATING LARGE E/NE WIND WAVES AND SWELL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH PUSHES E WHILE WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 30W ARE DOMINATED BY RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS...WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS BEING ADVECTED WWD WITH MODERATE E FLOW. IN THE ERN ATLC...A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 30N24W. THIS HAS A WEAK 1018 MB SFC REFLECTION NEAR 27N26W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE E PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 15W-25W...WHICH INCLUDES THE CANARY ISLANDS. WLY JET OVER THE DEEP TROPICS CONTINUES TO ADVECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EWD FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH AFRICA. $$ WILLIS