000 AXNT20 KNHC 112358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 4N25W 2N35W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 49W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150NM OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING E FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING SFC WINDS IN THE GULF TO GRADUALLY VEER E TO SE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. THIS IS GENERATING MODERATE E TO SE WIND WAVES/SWELL ACROSS THE GULF. A TOUCH HIGHER WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF DURING MONDAY. THIS EVENINGS SAT PICTURES STILL DEPICT A NARROW REGION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OFF THE NE MEXICO COAST AND SW GULF WATERS. OTHER SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. INCREASING UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE WRN GULF AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE NOW DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...S OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH MOVING E FROM VIRGINIA BEACH INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS CONTINUES TO CARRY ITS NORMAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. IN ADDITION TO THESE NORMAL TRADE SHOWERS...A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE IS SEEN WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA. GFS MOISTURE FIELDS ARE REPRESENTING THIS AREA FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGEST THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY BELOW 500 MB...WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN WV IMAGERY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLC IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 32N52W 24N65W THEN STATIONARY THROUGH ERN CUBA. EXTENSIVE COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS EXIST BEHIND THIS FRONT. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO EXTENDING THROUGH THE SW ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM 32N72W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NARROW ZONE OF UPPER MOISTURE IS SE OF THIS AXIS STREAMING SW TO NE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N53W 19N60W. THIS IS MARKED BY A SMALL LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. MUCH OF THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY 15-20 KT TRADE FLOW AROUND THE 1037 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE NRN PORTUGAL. THE EXCEPTION IS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NNW FROM 11N15 TO 30N20W...WHICH IS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS W THROUGH 25W. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE THE REFLECTION OF THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING NEAR 28N23W. SMALL PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN 18W-27W. WLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...THAT THEN SPREAD NE THROUGH AFRICA ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. $$ WILLIS