000 AXNT20 KNHC 111747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N20W 2N30W 1N40W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AND THE SE U.S.. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. W TO NW UPPER WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS INVADING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THE SE U.S INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER DELMARVA PENINSULA. WINDS AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUE TO BANK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS SFC HIGH IS ALSO GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF FROM W TO E AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY N WINDS. 15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE ALREADY BLOWING OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE BASIN. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWWD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND E CUBA...WHERE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRINIDAD REPORTED 1.13 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVES EWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N53W THEN CONTINUES SWWD TO NEAR 24N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND E CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N55W TO 22N60W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED N OF THE REGION COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-55W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 28N22W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW AND W TO 18N36W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FOUND JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH DOMINATING THE TROPICS. SAT PICTURES SHOW A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS RUNNING BETWEEN 9N-12N INTO W AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 31N18W TO 15N16W. THIS TROUGH IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL ATLC...E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OVER THE OCEAN E OF 60W. $$ GR