000 AXNT20 KNHC 110005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N15W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT WAS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 31W-38W HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. SIMILAR SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING FROM A 1033 MB CENTER OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT ELY WINDS EXCEPT SE IN THE FAR WRN PORTION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE FAR WRN GULF ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE POOLING AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRES AND ADJACENT SW GULF WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT NOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SW NORTH ATLC. WARMER SLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF FROM W TO E BY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 2100 UTC THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 18N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. A SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY STILL EXISTS AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...IN ADDITION TO A FADING LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SFC FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS GENERALLY NE 20-25 KT WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER E TO NE TRADES W OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR THE AREA NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...WHERE 25-30 KT IS EXPECTED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CARIB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GULF IS AFFECTING THE NW PORTION WHILE RIDGING GENERALLY HOVERS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIB. HOWEVER...OTHER SUBTLE FEATURES LIKELY THOUGH FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT AND DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WITH THE ABUNDANT DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IN PLACE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SSE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA 32N61W AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT REMAINS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF NE WINDS AND DRY/COOLER AIR HAS A DYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA AT 32N64W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS TO THE AREA WITH ITS NLY FLOW...ALONG WITH A MODERATE N SWELL THAT PROPAGATED AS FAR SOUTH AS DELRAY FLORIDA TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED MODERATE NW/N SWELL WILL SPREAD E INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING PUERTO RICO BY EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE TO E AND INCREASE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SEE MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS. THERE A SMALL PATCH OF MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 52W-59W WHICH SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH UPPER CENTER NEAR 36N36W AND THE 1034 MB SFC CENTER NEAR THE WRN AZORES AT 38N30W. AN UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS THAT HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 19N35W. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS NEAR 33N18W. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. UPPER WLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRETCH HIGH CLOUDS E ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS. $$ WILLIS