000 AXNT20 KNHC 101116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N3W 4N22W 1N32W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 40W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 19W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US...THE N GULF...INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N...RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CLEARED THE GULF YESTERDAY IS NOW IN THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS GENERATING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS THE US WITH A MB HIGH ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR24N98W AND A LARGER 1033 MB HIGH INLAND OVER ARKANSAS. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT MOVING INTO THE GULF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND EXTENDS INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N81W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE W CARIBBEAN. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW MOVING NE WELL N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT WHILE THE SECOND COLD FRONT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH DRIER AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND EXTENDS FROM A ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 24N58W COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-65W DIPPING S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO ERODE THE UPPER TROUGH THAT LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 18N FROM 28W-55W. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N18W S TO NEAR 20N25W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W TO 29N23W. THE TROPICS REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 36N36W. $$ WALLACE