000 AXNT20 KNHC 100526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N3W 5N22W 2N33W 1N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 3N FROM 36W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US...THE N GULF...INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N...RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CLEARED THE GULF ON TUE IS NOW IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE NE GULF TO NEAR 29N87W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS GENERATING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS THE US WITH A SERIES OF 1033 MB HIGHS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT MOVING INTO THE GULF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND EXTENDS INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N81W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W DISSIPATING IN THE W CARIBBEAN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N78W CROSSING NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT WHILE THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH DRIER AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 24N60W COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W DIPPING S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR THE UPPER TROUGH THAT LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 28W-55W. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W S TO NEAR 23N25W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION WITHIN THE REGION. THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 36N38W. $$ WALLACE