000 AXNT20 KNHC 092339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N20W 2N30W 3N45W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS NOW EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM N FLORIDA TO S LOUISIANA. STRONG HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH IN S TEXAS. NELY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KT IS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...STRONGEST IN THE MIDDLE AND E GULF. THIS STRONG FLOW IS POOLING CONSIDERABLE DENSE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS...GENERATED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND A RIDGE IN THE CARIB...IS S OF 26N. THIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT SLIDES E. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY IN THE CENTRAL AND W GULF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CARIB. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME ERN TROPICAL EPAC NEWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED TROUGHING LIES E OF THERE EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD PANAMA. THIS PATTERN IS ENHANCING DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH ABUNDANT STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE AREA. THE TAIL END OF A W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WRN CUBA AND THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE FRONT WAS ANALYZED STATIONARY AT 18Z...BUT IT MAY STILL BE INCHING SLOWLY TO THE SE. BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS...ONLY LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NRN COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING W/SW ACROSS THE SEA. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE...EXCEPT FOR WINDS TO 25 KT N OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVERALL...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR THRU THE TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND THEN INCREASE TOMORROW NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE EXTREME WRN ATLC WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM W OF BERMUDA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA ALONG 32N69W 25N77W 23N81W CONTINUING INTO THE CARIB. OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NLY WINDS ARE MODERATE TO STRONG ADVECTING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKENING SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 26N58W. THIS WEAK SFC FEATURE IS RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF A ONCE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 52W-57W. FURTHER N...A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 35N44W. THE SFC HIGH IS A LITTLE TO THE E...ANALYZED AT 1030 MB NEAR 36N41W. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA NOT OUTLINED N OF 22N W OF 30W. IN THE ERN AND TROPICAL ATLC...A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N20W TO 23N32W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE ATLC...THE STRONG STACKED RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENSIVE ZONAL FLOW IN THE TROPICS...IS GENERATING BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC FROM 12N-22N. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 25W-38W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. $$ CANGIALOSI