000 AXNT20 KNHC 091115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N7W 4N16W 2N27W 4N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 14W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE GULF MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY CLEARING THE GULF THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N81W TO 23N85W WHERE IT IS BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO NW GUATEMALA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS S OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 24N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANK...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ARE CLEARING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE US WITH A 1029 MB HIGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT BECOMING WEAKER AND MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT MOVING INTO THE GULF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE TO OVER W CUBA COVERING THE REGION W OF 75W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE W ATLC AND FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES FURTHER INTO THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO BEYOND 32N72W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM ACROSS W CUBA TO BEYOND 32N65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W CLOUD FREE. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N45W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N60W W INTO THE SW ATLC TO NEAR 23N70W CLIPPING THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 18N50W TO 26N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 35W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 3N46W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO 23N40W COVERING THE AREA S OF 24N E OF 45W TO OVER AFRICA. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR W ATLC WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N45W. $$ WALLACE