000 AXNT20 KNHC 082319 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N20W 3N37W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 32W-37W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E...ANALYZED FROM NEAR SARASOTA FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N82W 24N86W 18N92W AT 21 UTC. THE FRONT CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH DOPPLER RADAR ONLY DEPICTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A WEAK TSTM OR TWO DOTTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TX. THE TIGHTENED PRES GRAD IS PRODUCING NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT IN THE MIDDLE AND E GULF. THESE WINDS ARE USHERING IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50'S AND LOW 60'S F ACROSS THE N GULF. BROKEN CLOUDINESS IS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 150-200 NM. W OF THERE...DEW POINTS HAVE REALLY DROPPED OFF TO THE 20'S AND LOW 30'S F. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA TOMORROW MORNING...WHERE THE SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST A FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS FLATTENED WITH STILL SLIGHT RIDGING IN THE WRN CARIB AND TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN. ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE DRIEST AIR CONFINED E OF 80W...WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED SINKING ON THE W SIDE OF A CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. TRADE WINDS HAVE RELAXED...COMPARED TO WHERE THEY WHERE THIS PAST WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...STRONGEST N OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE PRES GRAD REMAINS WEAKENED DUE TO LOW PRES N OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT APPLY TO THE NW CARIB THOUGH AS NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE E GULF. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING W ACROSS THE SEA. THE THICKEST PATCHES ARE IN THE W CARIB AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE ATLC IS A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N56W. A RELATED SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 56W FROM 16N-28N. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 47W-56W. A LARGER SHIELD OF MOISTURE LIES FURTHER TO THE SE FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 38W-54W. THIS LARGER SHIELD IS GENERATED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS BETWEEN THE CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL E ATLC NEAR 4N26W. MUCH OF THE E ATLC HAS BROKEN PATCHES OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY EXTENDING ALONG 32N26W 26N40W. THIS TROUGH APPEARS AS IF IT WILL MERGE OR ABSORB AN UPPER LOW TO ITS E AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF DENSER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 21W-29W. THE WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH WIDESPREAD DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO MOISTEN SOME AS A COLD FRONT OFF THE E COAST MOVES E. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE UPPER LOW/SFC TROUGH NWD. BESIDES FOR THE COLD FRONT IN THE EXTREME W ATLC AND THE SFC TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS THE THEME AT THE SFC WITH TWO 1028 MB CORES JUST N OF THE REGION...NEAR 33N48W AND THE OTHER NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ CANGIALOSI