000 AXNT20 KNHC 051128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2N15W 5N30W 3N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 2W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90NM N AND 60NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ERN ARKANSAS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ALONG 29N90W 22N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-90W. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA THROUGH PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE GULF PORTION OF THE FRONT IS DIMINISHING...WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC HIGH BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. UPPER SUPPORT IS HEALTHIER WITH DISTINCT DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY E THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN GULF. SFC WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE SE TO S 15-20 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BACKING OFF A NOTCH INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE TRADE FLOW NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG E WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS VICINITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BRISK 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. BESIDES FOR THE STRONG TRADES...THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS ABUNDANT DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIB. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...AFFECTING THE LESSER/GREATER ANTILLES FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING EXTENSIVE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 70W. UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THIS RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SSW FROM 32N55W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE TO ITS E IS SUPPORTING THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS SEEN N OF 22N BETWEEN 41W-56W. THIS IS ALSO GETTING LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE OLD SFC STATIONARY THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N45W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 28N60W...ALONG WITH THE WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATED SE OF THE FRONT FROM 32N40W TO 23N50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 35N57W. IN THE ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 23N36W. A WIDE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW...N OF 20N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 33W. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS SPREADING E AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC. 1034 MB SFC HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE E ATLC AS WELL. $$ WILLIS