000 AXNT20 KNHC 031815 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N10W 3N20W 3N30W 3N35W 2N40W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...TO 1S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR AT 12W...5N20W 4N26W 5N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FROM BRAZIL TO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 27N108W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOVES ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W...AND FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST OF 27N83W 24N83W 23N88W 22N91W 20N92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 27N WEST OF 55W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 22N66W. THE 03/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG AND NORTH OF 15N. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N75W. SOME OF THIS MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVES NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF THE WINDS MOVE REACH CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE 14N75W CENTER AND REACHES NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA-PANAMA. SOME OF THE FLOW CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND SIMPLY CONTINUES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SOME OF THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THE MOST PROMINENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W AROUND THE 14N75W CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE U.S.A. ATLANTIC COAST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WIND MAXIMA/JET STREAM IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 60W. THE FASTEST WINDS RANGE FROM 80 TO 100 KT FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM 80 TO 100 KT FROM 26N TO 36N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THESE DATA COME FROM THE 03/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N40W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N47W...TO 13N50W TO 13N58W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 31N33W TO 28N40W TO 25N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N41W 20N45W 17N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. $$ MT