000
AXNT20 KNHC 022346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 5N10W 4N25W 3N40W 1N50W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE 
ELSEWHERE.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING STRONG SWLY 
FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH 
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. A 90 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE 
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE E BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 22N90W 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE FRONTS.  NELY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT WED. LOW 
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SW GULF WED NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE. 
SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THURSDAY 
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES E CUBA/JAMAICA TO 
NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST S OF GUADELOUPE. 
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ALMOST THE ENTIRE 
REGION. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  
BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA MOVING WESTWARD UNDER AN ELY WIND 
FLOW. SOME OF THESE PATCHES ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO. THE N YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA HAVE BROKEN 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS DUE TO THE FRONT. HIGH PRES OVER ATLC WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRISK E TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN WITH GALE 
CONDITIONS JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST INTO THU. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS 
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-50W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S 
INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E 
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 30W-40W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 
26N80W...THEN CONTINUES ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT. A 1027 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N48W. THE TAIL END OF A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N37W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 
24N50W. MAINLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A 
SURFACE RIDGE FROM A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NW SPAIN 
DOMINATES THE E ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING E-SE SURFACE 
FLOW S OF 30N AND E OF 30W.   

$$
GR