000
AXNT20 KNHC 011754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 4N23W 3N35W 3N48W 2N53W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W.  A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 
23N90W 18N93W MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-87W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 
18N-21N BETWEEN 90W-93W.  NLY 15-20 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD 
FRONT WHILE 15 KT SELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES 
ARE PRESENTLY IN THE LOW 50 BEHIND THE FRONT OVER COASTAL TEXAS 
AND LOUISIANA...WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE 
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W 
PRODUCING SWLY FLOW.  RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W 
PRODUCING MORE SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE 
ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 
TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA 
ESPECIALLY OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS.  NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO 
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT 
CHANGE MUCH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N65W.  THE TAIL 
END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 
28N55W 27N70W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N45W 24N52W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 44W-48W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 38W-44W.  A 
LARGE 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 
38N15W PRODUCING MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW S OF 30N AND E OF 32W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N 
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
40W-60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE 
CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N16W.   

$$
FORMOSA