000 AXNT20 KNHC 311131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 3N30W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 9W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING NE OUT OF TEXAS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 30N90W SW TO 25N92W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR 21N95W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N88W TO OVER ALABAMA AND MOVING INTO GEORGIA. DENSE CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE W GULF W OF 90W EXCEPT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEAVING THE E GULF RATHER CLEAR. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION LEAVING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE REGION NEAR 32N35W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N58W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH IS A LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 72W/73W FROM 26N-31N. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N57W TO 28N49W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BUT IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N34W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS CAN FORM. $$ WALLACE