000 AXNT20 KNHC 310529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N27W 2N39W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N E OF 22W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS E LOUISIANA ALONG 30N91W SW TO 26N94W THEN S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 28N90W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N89W TO OVER W ALABAMA AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI. DENSE CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE W GULF W OF 90W EXCEPT NW OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50'S TO UPPER 40'S. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NNE TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEAVING THE E GULF RATHER CLEAR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW E TREK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION LEAVING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA USHERED IN ON STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE AREA ALONG 32N46W 30N55W THEN NE OUT THE REGION OVER BERMUDA. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N45W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH IS A LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 72W FROM 25N-30N. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N58W TO BEYOND 32N41W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BUT IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N33W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS CAN FORM. $$ WALLACE