000 AXNT20 KNHC 300551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N25W 2N42W TO THE EQUATOR AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N97W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 28N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 90W-95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W AND N OF 23N. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS WARM 20-30 KT ESE SURFACE FLOW DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E AND EXTEND FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N AND W OF 70W. A RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 85W. W OF THE RIDGE AXIS SE FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. E OF THE RIDGE AXIS STRONG NWLY FLOW...SUBSIDENCE...AND A LACK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W PRODUCING WLY FLOW AND MORE SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT... SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 34N67W. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN 50W-80W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N36W TO 30N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO 27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NWLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W DUE TO A RIDGE. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 16N29W. TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-29W TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ FORMOSA