000 AXNT20 KNHC 291804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N8W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W CURVING TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EASTWARD...FROM 5N TO 20N EAST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR 31N108W NEAR THE BORDERS OF NORTHERN MEXICO/THE FAR WEST TEXAS/SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY MORE PROMINENT AREAS OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARE WEST OF 92W...AND NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 85W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWARD TO THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER. A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N100W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO NEAR 28N100W...AND THEN IT CURVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 25N TO 26N. THE COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N/29N ALONG 101W TO 26N104W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TEXAS NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...THANKS TO A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 7N73W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS THE MOST PROMINENT FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM VENEZUELA TO ANGUILLA. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W... FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W... INCLUDING MOVING INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N61W TO 25N67W TO 19N68W AT THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. THIS TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N45W TO 26N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA/JET STREAM RUNS FROM VENEZUELA...ACROSS THE GUYANAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...CYCLONIC FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W... ANTICYCLONIC FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 14W AND 27W...AND CYCLONIC ACROSS MAURITANIA INTO NORTHWESTERN MALI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALREADY EXISTS OR IS FORMING NEAR 15N32W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 40W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW RUNS FROM MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N45W. $$ MT