000 AXNT20 KNHC 281759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N11W 6N20W 4N30W 3N40W CURVING TO 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 25W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N WEST OF 27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 30N108W TO 29N108W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES BEYOND 25N111W IN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS SOUTHWESTERLY... AND IT IS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS NORTHWEST OF 22N97W 25N89W 30N87W. THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOME OF THIS FLOW IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. DEEP LAYER CYCLONE. THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 79W/80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 79W/80W RIDGE...GOING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS VENEZUELA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 10N TO THE ITCZ. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM A SEPARATE AND LARGE SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N31W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PASSES OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N78W 23N72W 27N67W BEYOND 32N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS WEST OF THE JET STREAM. THE 28/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS TO 90 KT NORTH OF 30N...AND SPEEDS FROM 40 TO 70 KT SOUTH OF 30N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N31W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 20W AND THE JET STREAM NORTH OF 10N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N15W TO 26N14W TO 23N17W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JET STREAM IS WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N26W BEYOND 17N16W. WIND SPEEDS IN THIS JET STREAM RANGE FROM 60 TO 90 KT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N18W TO 24N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N27W TO 23N43W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS DENOTE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. $$ MT