000
AXNT20 KNHC 281125
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N26W 3N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 48W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS NNE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ACROSS 
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC E OF 87W LEAVING WESTERLY ZONAL WINDS 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINING THUS LEAVING THE GULF SHOWER FREE 
THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE 
GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E US AND GULF INTO THE W 
ATLC. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 77W WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDING 
ACROSS E CUBA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N75W TO JAMAICA NEAR 
18N76W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 10N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE 
FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W CARIBBEAN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER 
RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH DRY UPPER AIR 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. STRONG 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS OVER 
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS E 
CUBA NEAR 20N75W AND CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W 
OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N48W COVERING THE MOST OF 
THE ATLC W OF 30W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC 
WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N18W S ALONG 23N20W. 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N17W SW TO 28N20W 
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE 
FRONT TO THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 27N INCLUDING THE CANARY 
ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY 
A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N36W. STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS 
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 
JETSTREAM OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH WINDS OF 90-120 KT 
EXTENDING FROM 17N23W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 23N16W. 

$$
WALLACE