000 AXNT20 KNHC 271730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N7W 5N18W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S46W TO 1S53W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2S TO 3N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OUTSIDE THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF WATERS NOW. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 21N83W 31N71W JET STREAM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RUNS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE TROUGH STILL SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N70W TO 22N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N76W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN JAMAICA TO 16N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N79W TO WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE IN BETWEEN 20N76W 15N79W 9N80W AND 22N81W 18N84W 17N89W IN BELIZE. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TOWARD 76W... AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA NORTH OF 6N...GOING FROM COLOMBIA EASTWARD ACROSS VENEZUELA...BEYOND 10N60W AND 10N50W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING OVER CUBA AND THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ROUGHLY...WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N83W 26N76W BEYOND 31N71W. THE 27/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 80 TO 125 KT NORTH OF 24N. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH AND WEST OF 20N33W 26N27W 31N24W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N52W. ALL THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N24W TO 27N25W TO 25N27W TO A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N32W TO 17N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W 26N39W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 26N39W CURVING TO 27N47W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA NORTH OF 6N...GOING FROM COLOMBIA EASTWARD ACROSS VENEZUELA...BEYOND 10N60W TO 10N50W... 8N40W AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT