000
AXNT20 KNHC 270503
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 3N35W S OF THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 44W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 21W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONTS CLIPPING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA 
KEYS TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF A LINE 
FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO CUBA NEAR 23N84W INCLUDING THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE E OF 93W 
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SURFACE 
WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER 
THE AREA AND A 1024 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO NEAR 
24N96W. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE 
W ATLC WITH DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING ALL BUT 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS 
ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NEAR 15N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 
20N77W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AND DRY THIS MORNING. 
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS OVER 
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 78W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N71W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND A SECONDARY COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE LEADING FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS 
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N58W COVERING THE CENTRAL AND THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 45W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 16N E OF 45W WITH THE MEAN AXIS 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W TO 16N35W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS 
THE REGION NEAR 32N27W W TO 28N38W DISSIPATING TO 28N52W. A 
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N29W TO 23N34W. BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH THE ABOVE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY SPLITTING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1024 MB 
HIGH IS NEAR 25N47W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N23W. A JET 
STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OVER THE TROPICS EXTENDING 
FROM 20N27W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N14W. 

$$
WALLACE