000 AXNT20 KNHC 261804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N8W 5N20W 4N34W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W AND 9W... FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE LONE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH PASSES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N104W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N87W 24N84W BEYOND 30N80W. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE JET STREAM RANGING FROM 90 TO 110 KT ACCORDING TO THE 26/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. THE COLD FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT PASSES THROUGH 31N76W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N...INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 31N77W 24N81W 17N85W 14N88W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST TROUGH SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 60W TO 80W. THE EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED AREA OF DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND ITS SOUTHERN END REACHES EASTERN HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 31N77W 24N81W 17N85W 14N88W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W. ALL THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 33N31W TO 25N31W 21N37W 16N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N40W TO 29N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 35N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. THE 26/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N58W 10N42W 12N32W BEYOND 18N16W. THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 70 TO 100 KT ON IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAND OF WINDS EAST OF 30W. $$ MT