000 AXNT20 KNHC 261124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 5N33W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 5W-8W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH A THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FAR E US AND NE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH AND OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N81W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE TIP OF W CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N E OF 93W. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO 26N85W WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE REMAINING ACROSS THE N GULF W OF THE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90-120 KT IS ACROSS THE GULF FROM S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE SE US. CARIBBEAN SEA... CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC WITH EXTREMELY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTEND ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AND DRY THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS BETWEEN 63W-69W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 25N65W COVERING THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC W OF 45W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1002 MB LOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N78W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO BEYOND 32N75W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF 45W A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING S INTO THE REGION TO THE W NEAR 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N13W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N18W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W TO 24N41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N55W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N25W. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OVER THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 14N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 26N14W. $$ WALLACE