000 AXNT20 KNHC 260458 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N18W 6N31W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 3W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH A THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE FAR E US. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND FORT MYERS TO ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N83W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE REMAIN ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N W OF THE COLD FRONT. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS ACROSS THE GULF FROM S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE FAR SE US. CARIBBEAN SEA... CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC WITH EXTREMELY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTEND ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE FRONT REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT. MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 24N68W COVERING THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC W OF 45W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO BEYOND 32N77W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 16N E OF 45W A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING S INTO THE REGION TO THE W NEAR 37W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1019 MB LOW NEAR 32N22W SW TO 27N26W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-100 KT IS OVER THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM 15N34W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 28N14W. $$ WALLACE