000
AXNT20 KNHC 251117
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N19W 7N34W S OF THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 9N E OF 36W TO PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF W OF 83W WITH A 
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING 
1001 MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT 
E TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N87W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W AND A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDING ACROSS S GEORGIA JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO 
THE W ATLC. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE 
FROM 25N86W TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND GALE FORCE 
WINDS REMAIN ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF THE COLD FRONT. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER 
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 
15N61W W TO 16N80W. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCING 
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS 
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W NE TO BEYOND 32N70W AND COVERING THE 
CENTRAL AND W ATLC W OF 40W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WELL N OF THE 
REGION IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA JUST E OF BERMUDA 
ALONG 32N63W TO NEAR 28N72W WHERE IT CONNECTS TO THE WARM/ 
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N W OF 77W TO INLAND 
OVER THE SE US. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W S TO NEAR 16N35W. THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W SW TO 29N31W WITH A REMNANT 
FRONT...SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N28W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N 
OF 26N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC BETWEEN THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH A WEAK 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N53W 
AND A 1025 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. AN EAST/WEST UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N12W TO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR. 

$$
WALLACE