000 AXNT20 KNHC 250005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN DEC 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N30W 4N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION NOTED W OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS IS COMPRISED OF A 1008 MB SFC LOW NEAR 28N92W THAT HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE NE GULF AND SE U.S. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NE TO E WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT IN ADDITION TO THE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE AREA...THOUGH FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH 20 KT S TO SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ANCHORED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH WRN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. FAIRLY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE NE PORTION...AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN. THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY SPARKED N OF THE YUCATAN SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FORMING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN PORTION AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PORTION. AT THE SFC...TRADES DOMINATE IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. THIS CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY...WHILE LIGHTER SE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHIFT NW TO N 15-20 KT INTO TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...BECOMES COLD NEAR 29N77W AND IS MARKED BY A DISTINCT ROPE CLOUD ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE SEEN OFF NRN FLORIDA WITH THIS PATTERN...WITH ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NOW JUST S OF LOUISIANA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N30W EXTENDING SW TO 17N45W AND THEN W INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N25W AND EXTENDS SW TO 24N43W. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ARE LIMITED TO THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 25W-30W. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING W OF 35W WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC SFC HIGH NEAR 35N42W TAKING OVER. A SWLY JET LIES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH THE COAST OF WRN AFRICA....THIS IS SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN NE SOUTH AMERICA AND NW AFRICA. $$ WILLIS