000 AXNT20 KNHC 241108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N16W 4N30W 1N40W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W GULF W OF 89W WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO INTO THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE MEANDERING W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95W CONTINUING S INTO E MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 84W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 82W. CARIBBEAN SEA... VERY WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N70W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 13N FROM 68W-77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO S NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W NE TO BEYOND 32N63W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 50W TO THE SE US COAST. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 26W-45W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N29W S TO 26N35W AND A SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W SW TO 29N39W. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 22N34W TO 17N37W. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N31W N TO BEYOND 32N28W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N32W TO BEYOND 32N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO US E COAST WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N57W AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E OVER AFRICA. AN EAST/WEST UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N49W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDING N JUST INLAND ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15N TO BEYOND 32N COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. $$ WALLACE