000 AXNT20 KNHC 231123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N18W 4N23W 1N35W 7N51W 5N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 8W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE W GULF FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 86W WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO 26N91W WHERE IT BEGINNING TO PULL N AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF N OF 22N E OF 90W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAKENING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 19N73W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 14N FROM 66W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N70W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NE OF A LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO BEYOND 32N74W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N FROM 34W-53W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W SW TO 25N43W AND A LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM 20N-28N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO US E COAST AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FAR E ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N17W N TO BEYOND 32N20W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. $$ WALLACE