000 AXNT20 KNHC 190529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N37W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 8W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 32N-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 89W/90W FROM THE N GULF COAST TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E US. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 90W FROM 23N-29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N FROM 89W-96W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF E OF 84W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON WED NIGHT/THU BRINGING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF AND MOVING EASTWARD. DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 83W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 70W-83W BRINGING VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W ADVECTING TROPICAL ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SAME AREA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-70W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E US OVER THE NW ATLC W OF 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W COVERING THE SW ATLC S OF 28N FROM 65W-83W DIPPING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N69W TO 20N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 64W-75W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A 1026 AND 1027 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 32N75W AND 32N62W RESPECTIVELY. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N36W TO NEAR 20N42W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W SW ALONG 25N44W TO 22N54W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N38W ALONG 23N39W TO 20N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF 27N FROM 32W-38W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 20N22W TO BEYOND 32N26W WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO THE W TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL E OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N36W 26N29W TO BEYOND 32N27W. $$ WALLACE