000 AXNT20 KNHC 161814 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N12W 4N23W 3N34W 2N46W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N10W 5N26W 4N38W 5N46W 6N56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 27N87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 24N90W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE TROUGH...EAST OF 87W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...SOUTH OF SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 87W. DRY AIR IS IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS MOVING FROM MEXICO EASTWARD...COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN A CLUSTER IS IN THE WATERS JUST OFF THE WESTERN CUBA COAST FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 28N EAST OF 87W IN THE MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 16/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW A 500 MB TO 350 MB LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 15N74W...ROUGHLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE... WITH THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 21N80W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...PROBABLY NOT REALLY RELATED JUST TO THE TROUGH. SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SEEN LARGELY FROM 12N TO 18N. SOME OF THE SAME CLOUDINESS REACHES 20N EAST OF 66W. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE A BIT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK AS MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT OVERALL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REACHES 33N66W. AN ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED JET STREAM...16/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 90 TO 110 KT WIND SPEEDS...IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N80W 29N69W 26N58W. A RIDGE EXISTS FROM 28N58W BEYOND 31N56W. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 31N67W...A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N67W TO 28N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W... CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA TO 21N80W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ENDING INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 64W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN TWO CLUSTERS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N30W. ONE TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER PASSES THROUGH 27N32W 26N28W TO 18N28W. A SECOND DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM 33N30W TO 27N39W TO 21N45W TO 15N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N24W TO 22N27W TO 16N34W. A TROUGH GOES FROM 16N34W TO 12N40W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N27W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WEST OF 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. MODELS SHOW THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW CENTER NOW NORTH OF THE AREA. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N28W NORTH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 12N24W 20N20N 27N20W BEYOND 31N22W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARALLELS THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TOWARD AFRICA. $$ MT