000 AXNT20 KNHC 160001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N11W 4N39W EQ49W. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF 15N TO AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NRN GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITH A REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER 97W.. A BROAD 1018 MB HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI IS AIDING THE ELY TRADES OVER THE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE E SAT AND SUN AND WILL STRENGTHEN SUN THROUGH TUE WITH AN INCREASE IN E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. SWELLS FROM A DEEPENING EAST COAST LOW WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED. A TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EMBBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT SE FLOW BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN. LIGHT SHOWERS AND BROKEN CLOUD DECKS ARE EVIDENT NEAR A WEAK TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND AS FAR S AS THE BELIZE COAST. SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE NRN COAST OF PANAMA TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST. OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE HIGH OVER MID ATLC WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH SUN. A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30N77W WITH FRONT TRAILING SW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E THROUGH MON. FRONT WILL MOVE E OF AREA SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF CAROLINA COAST. HIGH WILL DRIFT SE AND MAINTAIN FRESH ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH LARGE SWELLS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WED. OCCLUDED LOW PRES COMPLEX SITUATED NEAR SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 27N32W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO AROUND 15N40W. AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NEAR NLY GALE FORCE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRES APPROXIMATELY 240 NM TO THE W. LARGE NLY SWELL PERSISTS IN THIS AREA AS WELL WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 14 TO 18 FT. A LARGE FIELD OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND BEHIND THE FRONT AS FAR W AS 55W. CONVERGENT FLOW IS GENERATING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND MULTILAYER CLOUD DECKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE EXTENDING TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS PERSIST OTHERWISE ACROSS THE ATLC N OF THE ITCZ. 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 38N42W. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE OCCLUDED LOW IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF 14N AND W OF 40W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WIND PREVAILING TO THE S OF THIS AREA. FURTHER W...COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST N OF THE BAHAMAS...FOLLOWED BY 1024 MB HIGH PRES CELL SHIFTING E THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL VEER MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY W OF 60W AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO N. MEANWHILE THIS WILL WEAKEN THE 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO THE S. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD E THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COMES IN PHASE WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. $$ TORRES