000 AXNT20 KNHC 142325 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU DEC 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 5N30W 3N40W 1N52W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SFC TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF ALONG 86W/87W S OF 27N IS DRIFTING E. EXTENSIVE RAIN AND CLOUDS IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 90W. A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 24N76W DRIFTING E NE. SWIFT UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS SHEARING THIS ACTIVITY AND SPREADING DEBRIS SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONGER CELLS ALSO POPPING UP OVER SE FLORIDA WITH A CLEAR WARM ADVECTION PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL JET NOTED IN THE KMFL SOUNDING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS A RATHER UNIFORM W-SWLY ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOVE TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ORIGINATING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE NRN GULF. THE SFC TROUGH APPEARS AS IF IT MAY BE MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND AREA TO THE NE GULF. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE FEATURE WILL MOVE E/SE THROUGH FL THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN ITS WAKE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE AREA. A PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF PERSISTS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING N THROUGH 80W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR EXTENDS THROUGH THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THRU SAT AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC... A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010MB LOW NEAR 28N34W...IS CURRENTLY N OF 28N E OF 41W WITH N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT AND SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS W TO E THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY W OF 70W. THE SFC PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN ATLC AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE S AND SW PORTION OF A 1034 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 38N52W. THIS HIGH MOVES SLOWLY E TO SE THROUGH SAT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINAS BECOMES COLD AND PUSHES E TO SE TO 30N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SAT. A PAIR OF WEAK SFC TROUGHS ARE ON THE SRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH BUT ARE NOT GENERATING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE FIRST EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N69W...THE OTHER IS ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 10N52W 17N51W. A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE FAR E ATLC PORTION FROM A 1034 MB CENTER OVER NW SPAIN. ZONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 10N-20N...AROUND AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH JUST TO ITS S. $$ FETS