000
AXNT20 KNHC 111807
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 1N50W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 8W-12W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 
15W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 
23W-27W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 46W-51W.    

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 20N90W 24N95W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-97W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 94W-97W DUE 
TO ON SHORE FLOW.  A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC OFF 
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO S LOUISIANA 
PRODUCING ELY RETURN FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W.  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO 
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W PRODUCING 20-30 KT ELY WINDS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE 
AXIS ALONG 85W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE 
GULF E OF 87W AND S OF 27N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL.      
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA 
PRODUCING 20-30 KT ELY FLOW.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S 
OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 78W-86W.  FURTHER S... SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 
10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE 
ABC ISLANDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA NEAR 13N77W.  ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVER THE ENTIRE 
SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT WHERE CONVECTION IS NOTED. 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N73W.  
A 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N52W.  A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 26N60W 22N67W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 48W-54W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 21N41W TO 13N42W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N39W.  ANOTHER LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 22N29W.  

$$
FORMOSA