000
AXNT20 KNHC 111113
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N17W 3N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
AXIS FROM 17W-23W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM S 
OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER AFRICA E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW US AND W 
MEXICO AND IS APPROACHING THE W GULF. LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO SE LOUISIANA COAST. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE E GULF DRAWING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE SE GULF TO 27N E OF 88W BRINGING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT 
AREA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC 
EXTENDS OVER THE E US AS WELL AS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY 
AN UPPER HIGH OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDING N INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 
77W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 74W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED 
WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE 
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 
12N W OF 80W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST 
OF PANAMA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVER THE SW ATLC 
S OF 25N W OF 50W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 
25N BETWEEN 53W-75W. WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET IS ALONG THE BASE OF 
THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1017 MB LOW NEAR 32N56W SW TO 28N60W WHERE IT 
CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY...TO JUST E OF THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N 
OF 25N. A NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD MID/UPPER 
RIDGE OF THE CARIBBEAN/W ATLC FROM NEAR 25N51W NE TO BEYOND 
32N42W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING 
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA ALONG 25N22W TO A 
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 20N34W THEN SW TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC 
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 12N55W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 24N39W S TO 16N38W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 31W-38W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS UNDER DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE