000 AXNT20 KNHC 100544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N25W 5N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 25W-31W.SCATTRED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOWLY LIFTING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CORE WINDS ARE NEAR 80 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BASED ON THE 10/0000 UTC CIMSS DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COVERING THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W AND ANOTHER ONE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT COVER THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THESE TROUGHS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUE...ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN A LITTLE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN QUIET BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE ERN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF ON TUESDAY. LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF MON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA NEWD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THEN CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ON TOP OF THIS WEAKENING FRONT... SHEARING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEWD THROUGH HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THERE ARE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL PATCHES OF MOISTURE DRIVEN BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONE OF THEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO PUERTO RICO. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT OR MORE LIKELY REMNANT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS BLOW FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND BERMUDA. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N54W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. IS BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N36W TO JUST E THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. THIS UPPER LOW IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 31N-35W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA. A 1041 MB SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS MAINLY E OF 40W. $$ GR