000 AXNT20 KNHC 100019 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT DEC 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N9W 3N20W 5N35W TO 3N53W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 50W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOWLY LIFTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CORE WINDS ARE NEAR 100 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BASED ON THE 09/2100 UTC CIMSS DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS COVERS THE AREA IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GOES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND A SECOND TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE THE FASTEST IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH BUOYS REPORTING SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT. EACH SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT LINE OF CLOUDS AND A KINK IN THE ISOBARIC PATTERN. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE TROUGHS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD SLOWLY ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN A LITTLE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN QUIET BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT. A COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LINGERING AND INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. WEAKENING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ON TOP OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 76W. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE HAVE BEEN COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS DRY AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...COVERS THE AREA. THERE ARE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL PATCHES OF MOISTURE DRIVEN BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT OR MORE LIKELY REMNANT TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N60W AND 23N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N66W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N52W 27N58W 23N64W 21N76W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 29N79. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BLOW FROM CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND BERMUDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N36W TO 17N52W TO 15N60W TO 14N68W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. $$ MT