000 AXNT20 KNHC 091141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 41W-56W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING PARTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE CARRYING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1036 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ALABAMA COVERS THE SE U.S. AND THE GULF...INCLUDING ALSO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 KT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...WITH WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE SW PORTION. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF...WHILE LIGHT RAIN IS AFFECTING NE MEXICO. LINES OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REACHING HAVANA CUBA UNDER A NELY WIND FLOW. THE HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE W GULF. STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALSO DOMINATES THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN CUBA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO EASTERN CUBA...THEN CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC. A SFC TROUGH REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LIES ALONG 80W/81W. BOTH...THE STATIONARY FROM 12N-19N W OF 80W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND... WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...FROM A 1036 MB CENTER OVER ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N AND W OF 65W...JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N59W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. UPPER FLOW OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS MOSTLY SW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR 21N35W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE/CANARY ISLANDS. A 1040 MB SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AZORES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. $$ GR