000 AXNT20 KNHC 081728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 4N40W 4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1043 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N93W IS PRODUCING 20 KT NELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NEAR 70F OVER S FLORIDA. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 95W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE NELY FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 24N80W 19N88W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF FRONT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. A TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 79W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH A BIT MORE SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N70W 24N80W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N65W 22N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 61W-70W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N15W 31N30W 32N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N35W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-40W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA N OF 10N E OF 20W. $$ FORMOSA