000 AXNT20 KNHC 080543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 5N30W 4N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS CARRYING ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS E ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TONIGHT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-90 KT OVER THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERALLY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG 1044 MB SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NRN GULF FROM THE CENTRAL U.S..STRONG NELY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WRN GULF N OF 25N W OF 85W...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. A SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 26N96W 20N94W. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD REGION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA...AFFECTING THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN GULF/COASTAL MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY MID TO UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 80W AND AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH HISPANIOLA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 77W-81W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THE TRADES IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIB EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY N WINDS. NE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION FRI EVENING INTO SAT AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC JUST OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO INCREASE. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N70W TO 23N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-100 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 19N35W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 12N-20N EAST OF 30W. A STRONG 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 41N40W DOMINATES THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE OCEAN. WLY JET OVER THE DEEP TROPICS CONTINUES TO SHEAR THE CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ TO THE E. $$ GR