000 AXNT20 KNHC 071138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 5N30W 5N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 26N-35W...AND WITHIN 30-45NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY WLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE GULF NORTH OF 24N. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 90W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 24N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 86W FROM 22N-30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THU/FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE W GULF LATE TODAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE REGIONAL WATERS. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO JAMAICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT RAIN ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA BUT PARTICULARLY HONDURAS. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N50W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ALONG 28N60W 28N68W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NORTH OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM W OF 52W. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STREAMING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW QUADRANT OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 27N57W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 52W-61W. THIS AREA IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING OVER THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 20N32W...WHICH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE E ATLC E OF 30W INTO WESTERN AFRICA. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1033MB HIGH NEAR 32N25W. $$ GR