000 AXNT20 KNHC 070551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 5N30W 5N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50-70 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR 5N43W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 48N-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF ALONG 91/92W SOUTH OF 26N WHILE A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S.. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY. A SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 86W FROM 22N-30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF THU MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THU/FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE W GULF LATE TODAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN GIVING THE LESSER ANTILLES SOME CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO JAMAICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA BUT PARTICULARLY HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N50W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ALONG 29N60W 28N72W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT W OF 55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 55W. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STREAMING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW QUADRANT OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N60W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 52W-61W. THIS AREA IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING OVER THE E ATLC WATERS NEAR 20N32W...WHICH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE E ATLC E OF 30W INTO WESTERN AFRICA. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1033MB HIGH NEAR 32N25W. $$ GR