000 AXNT20 KNHC 051150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N12W 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N42W 6N47W 8N51W 11N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS THINNING OUT...RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR IS MIXING WITH THE MOISTURE AND BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. A COLD FRONT STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N89W TO 17N94W. THE FRONT STARTS AGAIN NEAR 17N97W...BEING BROKEN UP OVER THE GAP AREA...AND THEN IT CURVES TO 23N102W. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN EAST TEXAS AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO GIVE THE FORECAST OF A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY MARINER IN THAT REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EPAC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2. THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 17N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N75W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN A FEW DAYS AGO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE 17N64W CYCLONIC CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N64W - OVER PUERTO RICO - 12N67W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 31N53W 25N57W SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO DISAPPEARED FROM THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AT 05/0600 UTC DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR ITS CONTINUED EXISTENCE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 17N64W CYCLONIC CENTER. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STILL-DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N39W. LOW CLOUDS UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM STILL ARE MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY WITH TIME. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W ARE BEING CARRIED EASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THAT AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N48W TO 28N57W TO 29N67W. $$ MT