000 AXNT20 KNHC 050608 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 20N87W TO 18N91W. THE FRONT STARTS AGAIN NEAR 17N96W...CURVING TO 23N102W. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EAST TEXAS AND FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN MEXICO ARE HELPING TO GIVE THE FORECAST OF A GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...AND A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY MARINER IN THAT REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EPAC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2. THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 17N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N75W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC CENTER WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN A FEW DAYS AGO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVEN IN CENTRAL AMERICA.IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE 17N64W CYCLONIC CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N61W 17N64W 10N65W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE TRADE WINDS HAVE DECREASED A BIT FROM THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N53W 25N57W. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ANALYZED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME SPOT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 17N64W CYCLONIC CENTER. A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N41W...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITH TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W...EAST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N61W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W AND 15N75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N59W 16N61W 9N61W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MARKS THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N51W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N44W TO 27N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 24N55W 25N36W 16N43W 10N55W 24N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N21W TO 13N47W. $$ MT