000 AXNT20 KNHC 050001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. A SIMILAR SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 5N43W. MINIMAL ACTIVITY NOTED ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HUNG UP OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE WAS A SLIGHT REPOSITION OF THE FRONT TO THE NW ON THE 2100 UTC MAP DUE TO THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IN SE FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA...THROUGH THE SE GULF...AND INTO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH JUST WEAK CONFLUENCE NOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE GULF FROM ITS 1042 MB CENTER OVER NRN MEXICO. THIS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 18 FT IN THE SW GULF S OF 21N...THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONG HIGH HAS ALSO LED TO A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANY MARINE INTERESTS IN THAT REGION SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EPAC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2. OVERCAST LOWER CLOUDS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N AND W OF 84W. A FEW STREAMS OF THIN CIRRUS ALSO SPREADING ENE ACROSS THE GULF WITH UPPER WSW FLOW...NW OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXTENSIVE DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS SEEN HOVERING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THIS EVENINGS WV IMAGERY. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND A PRONOUNCED UPPER HIGH JUST W OF JAMAICA...AND AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N63W. CONVECTION/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A REFLECTION OF THIS AS A BROAD SFC TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N63W 7N64W. TRADES HAVE DECREASED A NOTCH FROM THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT E/NE FLOW NOW OBSERVED. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 26N80W. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE NOTED AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT WELL NE OF THE AREA...ZIPPING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING E TO NEAR 30N65W THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH 32N53W. THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ITS E...FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 59W-62W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE ATLC TO 25N63W. A WEAK 1018 MB SFC LOW IS SEEN NEAR 28N52W...THAT HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE E ATLC..AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING THROUGH THE WRN CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N30W. A 1030 MB SFC HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLC...CENTERED NEAR 33N19W. MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AROUND A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 45W. $$ WILLIS